Temperature Trend Detection in Upper Indus Basin by Using Mann-Kendall Test

Volume 1, Issue 4, Page No 5-13, 2016

Author’s Name: Ateeq Ur Rauf^a),1, Muhammad Salman Rafi², Irshad Ali², Uzair Wali Muhammad²

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¹Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, 47080, Pakistan and Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, 25000, Pakistan

²Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Bannu Campus, 28100, Pakistan

^a)Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: bhaisahib13@hotmail.com

Adv. Sci. Technol. Eng. Syst. J. 1(4), 5-13 (2016); DOI: 10.25046/aj010402

Keywords: Trend Detection, Global Warming, Climate Change, Mann-Kendall Test, HKH Region
Monthly Trends, Seasonal Trends, Glacial Melting, Meteorology

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Abstract

Global warming and Climate change are commonly acknowledged as the most noteworthy environmental quandary the world is undergoing today. Contemporary studies have revealed that the Earth’s surface air temperature has augmented by 0.6°C – 0.8°C in the course of the 20^th century, together with alterations in the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on detecting trends in seasonal temperature for the five selected stations in the Upper Indus Basin. The Mann-Kendall test was run at 5% significance level on time series data for each of the five stations during the time period, 1985 to 2014. The Standard Test Statistic (Z_s) indicates the presence of trend and whether it is increasing or decreasing. The analysis showed an increasing trend in mean monthly temperature at Astore, Gilgit and Gupiz in March and a decreasing trend for Astore, Drosh, Gilgit and Skardu in September. Gilgit and Gupiz showed unexpected increasing trend in October. This study concludes that the temperature starts increasing in March and stays elevated till the month of June and starts rising again in October thus resulting in expansion of summer season and prolonged glacial melting.

Received: 21 June 2016, Accepted: 25 August 2016, Published Online: 25 October 2016

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